Because of the relative rarity of goals scored over an average 90 minutes of football, you can win a match with your only constructive moment of the match. Were the match to be replayed, with the same performance levels, the opponent might comfortably batter you on each following occasion.
Victory, then, comes from a mixture of talent, timing and tactics. Three words that all begin with ‘t’, and are thus able to be part of an alliterative sequence, which, were it not for this Brechtian intervention, might have stayed in your mind as an effective way to force home the point. With this intervention though, it necessitates further explanation as to how that might play out on Sunday.
We are told that Louis van Gaal has instilled a system that had Manchester United playing their best recent football in their victory against Everton. That might be true, but the system showed its flaws against CSKA Moscow on Wednesday. Against a side that sits back, it cannot make proper use of the pace of Anthony Martial, Memphis, and Ander Herrera, the passing and clever runs of Juan Mata, and passes from deep from Bastian Schweinsteiger and Michael Carrick. It also prevents the full-backs having much say in attack, and Daley Blind’s absence from central defence means that an extra man joining the attack - Chris Smalling or Phil Jones - is as much use as bringing a fussy eater to an offal festival.
Of course, Wayne Rooney’s presence means that as well as United play, they are still essentially doing it when down to 10 men. He cannot be relied upon to perform the basics against any opposition, let alone one with a relatively sturdy defence. United’s best hope is that City play as foolishly as they did at Old Trafford last season, when they poured forward so regularly that it was impossible for United not to create chances, even after they conceded an early goal to David Silva, who will be absent on Sunday. Then, Van Gaal’s tactics - exploiting gifts when they are presented to you - will come in for more praise, and victory is possible.
What is more likely, especially given the exertions of travelling to and from Russia when City played at home against Seville, is that City won’t make the same mistake twice. They will have seen that United suffered when they played openly against Arsenal, and they should deduce that absorbing pressure themselves is the way to open up United. At Swansea City, too, United were sliced open by pace and seizing on United’s passing errors.
Now, as opposed to last season, City have the players able and willing to do this. Raheem Sterling and Kevin De Bruyne have both started well in their careers in Manchester, and have the speed to trouble each of the back line. Matteo Darmian and Smalling have only shown their abilities in flashes, for all the credit they have received this season. Wilfried Bony might not be the equal of Sergio Aguero, and might be struggling to adapt to his new(ish) side, but with Yaya Toure behind him, they have three players who can all give him a chance to contribute with a goal.
Just as Van Gaal’s tactics have often been a problem for United, so they have been for City, who often ended up staid and hamstrung, not least by the presence of Fernando and Jesus Navas, but the latter has recently found some relative form. This season, they have been far more effective in attack and less susceptible to defensive mistakes.
However, this is by no means guaranteed. City have performed poorly after their last two Champions League games, and it appears they are not yet used to the mental rigours of the competition, despite featuring in the tournament for years now. They go into the game as favourites, but just as you don’t actually have to play well to win a game of football, it is impossible to predict if they will make the most of their outward superiority.
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